It may surprise some that I almost never watch the Oscars. Rarely watch any awards show. They are always too long and I rarely agree with the nominees much less than the winners. Especially the Oscars. I think the Academy is mostly a bunch of snobs that believe a movie can't be good if the public liked it. That said in 2010 I think they mostly got it right. I would have probably left off Toy Story 3 (it's the THIRD best Toy Story movie!) and added The Town. I'm not going to pick nits. I will pick the winners though.
Best picture-
I think it’s absurd to have ten best picture nominees. The problem was the Oscars were such snobs they couldn’t nominate movies people had actually seen. So now they nominate ten hoping we will watch for a couple.
Black Swan- Just can’t bring myself to see a movie about ballet dancers.
The Fighter- Very good movie. Kinda low budget feel. Good acting.
Inception- Groundbreaking. Amazing to watch. At 3+ hrs a little long.
Kids are All Right- Didn’t see this one
The Kings Speech- Probably the best movie of the bunch.
127 Hours- Another very good movie. Acting is first rate.
The Social Network- Good movie but not the best.
Toy Story 3- Not even the best Toy Story movie.
True Grit- If not Speech then this movie should win.
Winter’s Bone- Surprise. Better than average but not Oscar caliber.
My pick- The Kings Speech
Most likely win- The Kings Speech- This movie seems to be riding a wave right now and should only get hotter as more get to see it. True Grit was hot for a while but seems to have cooled as has The Social Network. The Fighter may slip in but I’d be surprised.
Actor in Leading Role
By far the hardest to pick. The bottom four on this list could easily be winners any other year.
Javier Bardem- Biutiful- Barely even heard of this movie.
Jeff Bridges- True Grit- He was much better here than Crazy Heart
Jesse Eisenberg- Social Network- He was made for this role.
Colin Firth- Kings Speech- Absolutely incredible.
James Franco- 127 Hours- He made the movie. Many years he would win.
My pick- Colin Firth
Most likely win- I would guess Jeff Bridges except he won last year and Kings is getting hot at exactly the right time. Jesse Eisenberg could pull off an upset, but I doubt it.
Actress in a Leading Role
Much harder since I only saw one of the five movies. I think Bening and Kidman are vastly overrated. Seems they get nominated every movie they make that no one ever sees.
Annette Bening- Kids are All Right- Didn’t see this movie
Nicole Kidman- Rabbit Hole- Didn’t see this movie. Looked bad to me.
Jennifer Lawrence- Winters Bone- She is very good here.
Natalie Portman- Black Swan- Didn’t see this movie.
Michelle Williams- Blue Valentine- I don’t get this one at all.
My Pick- Jennifer Lawrence- She did a great job. Deserve an Oscar? Probably not. Leading lady roles are clearly hard to come by. I looked back over the 50+ movies I saw in 2010 and didn’t see a lady I would clearly give the Oscar to. Jennifer is as good as any.
Most Likely Win- Natalie Portman- That is the talk. Nat is the winner.
Actor in a Supporting Role
A very tough category. All of these nominees are very good.
Christian Bale- The Fighter- He takes a role that could be cartoonish and makes it believable.
John Hawkes- Winter’s Bone- He made the movie better than it could have been.
Jeremy Renner- The Town- A little more over the top than I think he needed to be but still deserved the nomination.
Mark Ruffalo- Kids are All Right- Didn’t see the movie but usually like his acting.
Geoffrey Rush- Kings Speech- I’m not sure why he is Supporting and not Leading. I thought he made the best movie of the year.
My Pick- Geoffrey Rush- He has always been a versatile actor. He takes all kinds of roles. This is his best work by far.
Most likely Win – Christian Bale- I couldn’t argue with this pick. He is very good.
Actress in a Supporting Role
The ladies shine in this category. A lot of great performances that are deserving of the nomination.
Amy Adams- The Fighter- She goes from a goody girl to a tough chick that can kick your butt!
Helena Bonham Carter- Kings Speech- Never been a fan of hers yet she nailed this part. She was very good.
Melissa Leo- The Fighter- She is an attractive woman that plays a big haired-chain smoking white trash mom and does it well.
Hailee Steinfeld-True Grit- I think she should have been a leading lady.
Jacki Weaver- Animal Kingdom- I don’t know anyone that sees more movies than I do and I have never heard of Jacki or the movie Animal Kingdom.
My Pick- Hailee Steinfeld- I know she is young and this is her first big movie role. She nailed the part and holds her own with Jeff Bridges.
Most Likely Win- Helena Bonham Carter- I think politics will play a part in this. Carter was very good and deserves the nomination. She has been a critics darling and Kings Speech is riding a wave that could take her to the gold. I think Amy Adams will be handicapped by the roles she played in the past. Hailee Steinfeld will be hurt because of her age. Melissa Leo might be the dark horse that slips in if The Fighter catches fire.